There is one thing that is certain for the race this weekend at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval. when this race is done there will be four less drivers and teams competing for the MENCS Championship. Without a doubt that is one of the only definites this fan can see but, which ones won’t move on to the round of twelve is beyond me at the time of this writing. We all know the ones that are locked in to moving on but there are those from about ninth to fifteenth that really need a good finish when the Roval is done. As for Erik Jones in sixteenth, well, he needs to win to be sure he can make it.
The Roval is a unique road course track and just about anything can happen. Honestly, from my view, just about anything we can think of probably will happen before this one is in the books. This is the second time the MENCS teams have visited the Roval and, if you remember last year’s race, a lot of unexpected things happened. I expect the same or even more this time.
The bubble drivers – those from ninth to fifteenth – are only separated by fourteen points and if any of them run into problems their run in the playoffs is through for this 2019 season. You already know the ones in the most precarious situations are, Alex Bowman, Clint Bowyer, Kurt Bush and Erik Jones because they are already below the cutline. Those that can’t afford any problems (at least from this fan’s view) are William Byron and Aric Almirola since they are only above the cut by two to three points.
Of course, as you already know, William Byron won the pole position and has looked to have speed since they unloaded off the truck, along with his teammates Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson. Bowman sits in thirteenth place in the standings just two points behind Byron which could make for some very interesting drama as the race progresses to its completion.
Chase Elliott is reasonably safe sitting in seventh place with +37 points but he cannot afford to have a bad day and, if he has a DNF, his chances would be done for the playoffs and advancing to the final four. It is worth noting that many have already written off the Chevys making it to the round of eight let alone the final four. From this fan’s view, Chase looked to be struggling a bit in practice and even struggled in qualifying. I’m not ruling him out yet, as far as having another good road course run, but he does have his work cut out for himself.
In observing the Hendrick Chevys so far this weekend, they do look to have the speed and have proved it by three of them starting in the front two rows. My concern is what has plagued them most of the season and that is maintaining that speed all the way to the finish. Practice times and qualifying are one thing but it doesn’t say much about how they will fare on restarts, in traffic and all the way to the finish.
I will say this though; Jimmie Johnson could win this one. That would be a big deal for him if for no other reason than he hasn’t had a win in a long time. If he does win that would make it all the more difficult for Erik Jones to advance to the next round unless he scores a lot of stage points and finishes very near the front.
Although there is a lot going on throughout the playoff contenders, one that has me concerned is Kyle Bush. Don’t know what’s going on with him but he just hasn’t looked all that good recently and hasn’t been handling what “the racing gods” have been handing him lately. It was even obvious during practice that he may not deal with slower cars all that well like in recent races. I’m not saying anything negative but, his aggressiveness could come back to haunt him and take him right out of the hunt for a Championship. The JGR Toyotas are strong but the stress of the playoffs could be the undoing for a couple of them. (Oh, in case you’re wondering, Denny Hamlin is the other one. Not saying things will go wrong. Just saying they could.)
In observing the first practice and qualifying, it certainly appeared to this fan that many were struggling with wheel hop and that could prove to be a disaster for, not only the ones experiencing it, but for those that might get taken out along with them. If it happens to take someone out that needs a good finish, well, we all know what that will mean and that is one thing that will make this race at the Roval a bigger wild card than Talladega. But then, this is a cutoff race and it is at one of the most challenging tracks in the playoffs.
This fan expects there could be more than the usual drama and emotion throughout this one and some of it may play out on the track… Hey, I’m just saying it is going to be intense and You and I both know what that can mean…
See ya next time…
All views expressed are strictly the opinion of the writer
© September 28, 2019 – all rights reserved
Rusty Norman, Nascarfansview.com and Justafansview.com
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